Decision-making in the area of efficiency of housing developing based on trend analysis

Authors

  • Tomáš Poláček Brno University of Technology
  • Jiří Oulehla Brno University of Technology
  • Mirko Dohnal Brno University of Technology
  • Tomáš Meluzín Brno University of Technology

Keywords:

Forecast, Housing development, Real estate, Trend, Qualitative, Transition,

Abstract

This study, based on qualitative research, specifies factors, links between them and possible scenarios of development that affect the housing process. First of all, the study specify the factors that are entering the process of building housing units. Study will then find out how these factors affect each other and, based on the trend analysis, will be derive the possible scenarios that can occur. The solution of a trend model M(X) is a set S of scenarios where X is the set of n variables quantified by the trends. All possible transitions among the scenarios S are generated. An oriented transitional graph G has as nodes the set of scenarios S and as arcs the transitions T. An oriented G path describes any possible future and past time behaviour of the housing development system under study. The conclusion of this study will be the map of the whole process from which we can determine the state, depending on how the individual scenarios follow.

References

Ambrose, Brent W., Moussa DIOP a Jiro YOSHIDA. 2017. Product Market Competition and Corporate Real Estate Investment under Demand Uncertainty. Real Estate Economics [online]. 45(3), 521-590. DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12150. ISSN 1080-8620.

Beyerle, Thomas. 2003. 10 years of real estate research in Germany, From market and location analysts to global information strategists?. IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc [online]. St. Louis: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis,

Bredeweg, B., Bouwer, A., Jellema, J., Bertels, D., Linnebank, F. F., & Liem, J. 2007. Garp3. Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Knowledge capture - K-CAP 07. doi:10.1145/1298406.1298445

Czech statistical office, 2018. Supply of apartments. Czso.cz [online]. Available z: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/ceny_bytu

Delis, M. D., Mylonidis, N. (2015). Trust, happiness, and households’ financial decisions. Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 82-92. doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2015.08.002

Dočekalová, M.P., Kocmanová, A., 2016. Composite indicator for measuring corporate sustainability. Ecol. Indic. 61, Part 2, 612–623. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.10.012

Dohnal, M., Doubravsky K., Qualitative Upper and Lower Approximations of Complex Nonlinear Chaotic and Non-chaotic Models, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, Volume 25, Issue 13, 15 December 2015

Dohnal, M., 1985. Applications of a universal expert system in industry. Comput. Ind. 6, 115–121. doi:10.1016/0166-3615(85)90017-X

Fincentrum Hypoindex, 2008-2016. Development of interest rates. Hypoindex.cz [online]. Available from: https://www.hypoindex.cz/hypoindex-vyvoj/

Lipmann O., Bogen H., 1996 Naive Physik. Arbeiten aus dem Instuut fur angewandte Psychologie in Berlin. Theoretische und experimentele Untersuchungen fuer die Feihigkeit zu intelligentem Handeln (Leipzig, Johann Ambrosius Barth)

Kamstr M., Kennedy P., Combining qualitative forecasts using logit, International Journal of Forecasting 14 (1998) 83–93

Meluzín, T., M. Zinecker a N. Lace. Going Public: Key Factors to Consider by IPO Candidates on Emerging Markets of Poland and the Czech Republic. Engineering Economics, 2016, vol. 27, no. 4, p. 392-404. ISSN 1392-2785.

Sen, P.K., Singer, J.M., 1994. Large Sample Methods in Statistics: An Introduction with Applications. CRC Press.

Orrell, D., McSharry, P., 2009. System economics: Overcoming the pitfalls of forecasting models via a multidisciplinary approach. Int. J. Forecast., Special section: Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability 25, 734–743. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.002

Poláček, T.; Dohnal, M. Qualitative Models of Bankruptcy Proceedings Integrating Psychological and Economic Aspects. International Journal of Economics and Management Systems, 2017, roč. 2, č. 1, s. 198-205. ISSN: 2367-8925.

Stekler H., Hilary Symington H., Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010, International Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting 32 (2016) 559–570

Vicha, T., & Dohnal, M. (2008). Qualitative identification of chaotic systems behaviours. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 38(1), 70-78. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2008.01.027

Vicha, T., & Dohnal, M. (2008). Qualitative feature extractions of chaotic systems. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 38(2), 364-373. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2008.01.008

Downloads

Published

2019-07-16

Issue

Section

Section 1: Perspectives of Business and Entrepreneurship Development